New Gallup tracking poll

by hwc, Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:39:18 PM EST

Here's this afternoon's Gallup tracking poll:

This is a three-day rolling poll with 1250 likely Democratic voters.

PRINCETON, NJ -- The increase in support for Hillary Clinton at the national level that Gallup saw in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday continued in interviewing Tuesday night. Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Feb. 3-5 now includes three consecutive days in which Clinton has done well, giving her a 13-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 52% to 39%.

Democratic preferences in Tuesday night's interviews -- mostly conducted before Super Tuesday election results were known -- were similar to Sunday and Monday night's interviews. Gallup Poll Daily tracking will not begin to reflect the impact of Tuesday's voting on national Democratic preferences until tomorrow.

Obama had been competitive with Clinton in interviews conducted Feb. 2 (as well as earlier last week), but those interviews have now dropped out of Gallup's continuous three-day rolling average reporting.




Tags: Election 2008, President, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

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Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Hmm. That looks good for Hillary. Too bad she's "out of money".
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong --Stephen Stills "For What It's Worth"
by vj on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:45:35 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (2.00 / 1)

Looks good for Clinton.  If she can hold Obama to modest delegate wins up to OH, TX, then she will be hard to beat.


by bdog on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:47:40 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Maybe this will start bringing in some money for her. Wins usually do.

Moreso, though I expect the no money situation is spin so that 527's can start their advertising.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:53:06 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

I love the Poll but nor taking any gallup polls into
consideration - always wrong - Waiting for Survey USA polls
by indus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:01:12 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

So according to this poll she had a big advantage yesterday in double digits. Yet according to the ACTUAL VOTING yesterday in the total popular vote they were less than a point apart.


by animated on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:05:36 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

I think this is a super tuesday bounce. Or maybe people are tiring of Obama.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:08:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

It was "before the results were known." I don't know  what kind of bounce will come out of Super Tuesday but I suspect the national polls will continue to trend for Clinton as people become more familiar with Obama.


by souvarine on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:12:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Poll says 52-39 Clinton ON THE DAY OF Super Tuesday voting yet the actual national popular vote was:

Clinton 48.97% (6,967,302)
Obama 48.04% (6,835,447)


by animated on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:14:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (2.00 / 1)

But it's nationwide right? So it wouldn't have just the super tuesday states in it.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:22:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Either way, the numbers don't add up. It's unlikely Clinton would have the huge 30-40 point margin she would need in the non-Super Tuesday states to turn the tie that we saw in the voting yesterday into a 52-39 margin.


by animated on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:27:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (2.00 / 1)

There is no "actual national popular vote" count, what you are reporting is guesstimates of the Super Tuesday vote from MSNBC based on how they think caucus delegates map to raw vote. Obama supporter Tom Schaller (a political scientist) came up with 50.2% to 49.8%. The actual percentages could be very different, since caucus delegates have a complicated relationship to voters.


by souvarine on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:00:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (2.00 / 1)

I don't know where you are getting your numbers. I entered all the vote totals in a spreadsheet this afternoon. The only state I didn't add was the tiny caucus in Alaska.

Here are the totals from just yesterday:

Clinton: 7,447,974 (53.4%)
Obama: 6,489,648 (46.6%)


by hwc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:04:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How did you get caucus votes? (none / 0)

Only county/state delegates are shown for most of these.  I have yet to see caucus votes reported on national websites.


by lombard on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

I am getting my numbers from MSNBC, via the front page of this site.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/6/14374 /44085


by animated on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:56:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

There's your first mistake. MSNBC cooks its numbers all the time, taking stale data if it suits their agenda.


by hwc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:41:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Yeah, I am sure MSNBC "cooks the numbers," while you have no agenda.

Here's another source that doesn't match your numbers:

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tappe d_archive?month=02&year=2008&bas e_name=amazingly_close502_to_498


by animated on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:48:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

It's also a nationwide poll, isn't it? Yesterday just the Super Tuesday states voted. I wouldn't expect the margin to be the same.
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong --Stephen Stills "For What It's Worth"
by vj on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:13:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (2.00 / 1)

I hope she wins in the end- unfortunately, I have to get back to the "real world" and won't be able to come here as much.


by reasonwarrior on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:14:25 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

This was all before Super Tuesday. While it was great, it was not enough. All these numbers will change and I get the feeling Obama will surpass Clinton or at least tie her in the national polls in the coming days and weeks. The thing about Obama is that he does not have to win to get momentum, he just needs to tie.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:17:48 PM EST

due to Florida, a tie might go to Hillary (none / 0)

If there is a tie, there will be strong pressure to seat the Florida delegates, since Obama was on the ballot there.

Either that, or have FL and MI re-vote.


by enthusiast on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:42:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If they don't seat FL and MI (none / 0)

delegates, the Democratic party can kiss the election goodbye.


by lombard on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:26:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Republicans punished MI and FL (none / 0)

as well, just half as much. I find the idea that partisans who participated in a primary even knowing their vote might not count for the convention translates to them sitting on their hands in November kind of laughable. They showed up and voted when it didn't count, I would expect them to show and vote when it does count.

In any other year would we even be talking the nuts and bolts of the Credentials Committee? Not everyone is the political junkie typical of this site, when the time comes I suspect that this will all be water under the bridge, the stakes of this election are just too high for voters to act simply out of wounded pride over convention rulings.


PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls
by Bruce Webb on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Republicans punished MI and FL (none / 0)

I think the point is that it give the GOP a big stick to use in the general. You see Floridians, the Democrats don't want your votes. It could tend to demoralize enough voters in the general to help the GOP get a win.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Maybe, maybe not (none / 0)

He has yet to equal her in national polls despite at least two significant bursts in momentum.  As the possibility of his nomination becomes more immediate, I think you may see a voter backlash.  The states at the latter end of the calendar are not liberal do-gooder states like Iowa and Minnesota.


by lombard on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:29:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

It's not so relevant now with the majority of states in the rear view mirror.


by mikelow1885 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:18:28 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (2.00 / 2)

I personally find his attempts to pander to my age cohort somewhat offensive.


by truthteller2007 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:21:19 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Clinton is broooooooooooooke!!

Obama will win this nomination!!!!!


by Djneedle83 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:52:10 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Yep and McCain will be President. Maybe the Dems in congress will get a spine.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:14:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Believe it or not, I know people who privately tell me they will vote McCain if Obama is the nominee. As I have said before, Obama has not sold me, so I will consider all candidates come November if he is the nominee.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:37:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (2.00 / 1)

Me too. GA is hard enough already. Do we really want to have a national candidate lose by 30 pts here in this state? Kerry dragged enough tickets down. Obama would probably do more.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:04:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

I can think of LOTS of people who have told me that will vote for McCain over Hillary, but would support Obama if he were the nominee.


by elrod on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:50:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

I would seriously consider voting for McCain if Obama is the nominee.  Obama is the candidate of the rich.  McCain would tear   him up among Reagan/Clinton Democrats.


by Dooley on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:02:40 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

So is this being pushed by the pundits?

Probably not relevant.


by CVDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:30:20 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Interesting how the Hillary all of sudden love the polls when last week they said the polls don't matter.  Whatever makes you feel better I guess.


by A from Phoenix on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:06:16 PM EST

These numbers don't add up. (none / 0)

In primaries yesterday, the votes were extremely close (Clinton by 1%, I think). In caucuses, Obama dominated. So overall, its probably safe to say that Obama won the popular vote - or even if he didn't, the vote was within 1%.

I only found one national poll that gave the results for just Super Tuesday states:
"The picture in the states voting on Super Tuesday is not nearly as close as the overall picture and offers some good news for Clinton. Among voters in those states, she leads Obama, 49 percent to 31 percent, with 16 percent still undecided. "

The other results of that poll seem to conform with all the others, so I think we can accept this result. So, considering that Obama managed to surge enough to at least tie Clinton, he can't possibly be down by 13% now.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:09:32 PM EST

Re: These numbers don't add up. (none / 0)

But this poll is national and takes into account all states not just super tuesday states.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:29:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: These numbers don't add up. (none / 0)

Yes. My points are:

  1. Obama does worse in Super Tuesday states than overall nationally.
  2. Obama at least tied Clinton yesterday.

Conclusion: Obama must be at least tied with Clinton nationally. He can't possibly be 13% back.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: These numbers don't add up. (none / 0)

Well if you look at his losses in the most populous states that would explain some of it. And besides, some of the votes are in cacuses which don't reflect the totality of the electorate. Then there are big states like OH, TX and PA where he is polling 20 pts or more behind Clinton. That could explain it too.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I added up the overall votes from primaries: (none / 0)

Obama: 7,140,484
Clinton: 7,340,568
Around 1% margin for Clinton. But this doesn't include caucus states such as Colorado and Minnesota that went overwhelmingly for Obama (they had more than 100,000 state delegates each!) So, Obama at least tied the popular vote if we give Clinton the benefit of the doubt.

From my previous link, Obama tied nationally while losing Super Tuesday states by double digits. Obviously, he did not lose Super Tuesday states by double digits. That leads to one of two conclusions:

  1. Obama suddenly lost 20%+ in post-Super Tuesday states without any apparent cause
  2. This poll is an outlier

I think the second conclusion is quite a bit more probable than the first.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:56:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

Obama could use some Viagra? It would be sad if it weren't so great.  


by cc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:41:17 PM EST

What a joke (none / 0)

This poll sort of confirms the idiocy of polling this cycle. On the very day that HALF the Democratic electorate actually went to the polls, and split their votes almost exactly evenly between Clinton and Obama, Gallup finds a 13 point lead for Clinton. One word describes this fraudulence: Zogby.

I can't believe Hillary supporters are taking any solace from this poll. It reminds me of early exit polls in 2004 showing Kerry ahead, but the returns showing otherwise.

Hillary needs money and organization in the February caucuses and primaries or she will get stonewalled the rest of the month. Rallying in OH and TX on March 4 will look as effective as Giuliani's great Florida gambit did.  But at least she won the "Gallup primary" on February 5.


by elrod on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:55:12 PM EST

Re: New Gallup tracking poll (none / 0)

And Rasmussen's tracking poll closed to 4% again today.  These tracking polls are weird.  They seem to be constantly moving in the opposite directions.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:04:02 PM EST


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