Yeah, take that, Obamanauts.

You put this out there like it matters and it does not.

Do you really believe that Obama would lose California? If you say you do than you are lying.

Do you really believe Obama would lose NY? That is slightly more believable but it is still not going to happen.

And the fact that more democrats than repubs are coming out across the board means that some states that have not been on our board in years might be,at the very least, talked about if Obama is the nominee and that would be a good thing even if he ultimately lost those states.

Obama could lose Pennsylvania and Florida to McCain.  Hillary wins PA, and has a much better chance of winning Florida.  Hillary adds Arkansas unless Huckabee is on the ticket.  What does Obama add (and don't tell me Georgia or South Carolina- that is a fantasy and tells me you're thinking with your heart, not your head)?

So far, Obama's campaign has been brilliant, counting on the overweighted rural votes and the small states.  But can we really go with the candidate that lost, or will lose, the primaries in California, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and Texas?

Strategically speaking, it's the purple states that matter.  The true-blue states will vote D no matter what.  The red states won't vote D even if we put up Jesus Christ himself.  (Notorious librul, that guy. ;-)  

However, it would be a kick in the teeth to our most loyal voters to ignore blue states.  In the long run, that's probably not smart.

I guess that's what super delegates are for.  Blue states have more.

I don't think the issue is how they do in either confirmed red or blue states, but rather:

1: how do they do in swing states? Florida went to Hilary, and she's favored in PA and OH -- any others?

2: do they bring any red states into play? That's not so much a matter of who won the primary as who is doing best in polling that matches them vs mcCain.Here's where Hillary has an advantage I think -- if Repub women in the south like her, she make take a few of those states and make them competitive.

3: do they take any blue states and put them into play for McCain? Here's where Obama has an advantage, as it's more likely that Hilllary might put a blue state like CT into play for McCain (but, again, would have to see polling -- just a guess).

1: how do they do in swing states? Florida went to Hilary, and she's favored in PA and OH -- any others?

Michigan (close in 2004)
Florida (obvious swing state)
Arkansas
New Hampshire
Tennessee (red, but not unthinkably red)
Arizona (red, but not unthinkably red)
New Jersey

And, I do not think we can poo-pooh California, Jersey, and Pennsylvania with a moderate Republican like McCain. Remember, California has a Republican governor. These states are natural territory for an "independent" Republican candidate with unquestioned commander-in-chief gravitas.

BTW, for anyone who wants to better vizualize the electoral collge, the interactive map at this site is great:

www.270-to-win.com

You can start with the 2004 actuals and just start clicking states. You can also call up a map of every electoral college election as far back as you want to go. It's a good reality check for those who say that a candidate might put Alabama or Wyoming on the map!