Florida Exit Poll Demographic Info

Here are some tidbits from the Florida Exit polls. Discuss amongst yourselves.

BTW, I believe more Democratic votes were cast today than Iowa, NH, Nevada, and SC combined. Discuss amongst yourselves:

Florida has 27 electoral college votes, the fourth largest in the country and 10% of the electoral college votes necessary to elect a Democratic president. Discuss amongst yourselves:

Women (59% of voters):
Clinton 55%
Obama 29%
Edwards 13%

Men (41% of voters):
Clinton 42%
Obama 35%
Edwards 20%

---------------

White (67% of voters):
Clinton 53%
Obama 22%
Edwards 22%

Latino (12% of voters):
Clinton 59%
Obama 30%
Edwards 7%

African American (19% of voters):
Clinton 27%
Obama 70%
Edwards 1%

------------

Democrats (79% of voters):
Clinton 53%
Obama 33%
Edwards 12%

Independents (17% of voters):
Clinton 42%
Obama 28%
Edwards 27%

Republicans (4% of voters):
Clinton 24%
Obama 26%
Edwards 34%

Update [2008-1-29 21:28:5 by hwc]: Senator Bill Nelson (who probably has pretty good sources) said a little while ago that 2.5 million Democrats voted today in Florida. There are only 4.2 million registered Democrats in the state. The ol' boys club running the Democratic Party is committing suicide by encouraging the networks to not cover this primary (free advertising for Democrats. Of course the ol' boys club of the Democratic Party has a long tradition of losing Presidential races. Discuss amongst yourselves.



Display:


Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

I noticed Hillary won the Catholic vote by a 3-1 margin.  Whatever happened to those pictures of JFK...


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:36:44 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

Wow..Hillary had a double digit lead in Independents


by world dictator on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:51:08 PM EST

wow (none / 0)

I would like an obama or edwards supporter to tell me these numbers don't matter.

everyone follows polls every day.  this is a poll that can't be attacked because of methodology.

The clintons have taken the obama camp's race card and trumped it so far.

But they should be ready for the msm's next shot.  They won't give up this easily.


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:56:54 PM EST

don't believe this spin about no delegates (none / 0)

there were no delegates chosen in iowa or nevada either.  They chose state delegates who will then choose national delegates.

These state delegates in most cases don't have to vote for who they pledged for, though I think they are expected to.

So Iowa and nevada were beauty contests too.


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:58:28 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

On CNN Susanne Malveaux just reported that Obama is laughing, but is also frustrated at the victory rally on TV.


by CVDem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:58:29 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

The media once again bowed to Obama and showed only 3 mins of the rally.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:00:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is laughing (none / 0)

as usual the graceless clod.

He is laughing that more voters than voted in all of the other states put together went to the polls to say they wanted to be heard.


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

Concerning the black/white breakdown, the exit polls are terrible for Obama.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:59:21 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

Of course the exit polls mean nothing because the Obama charm would have meant a 20 point turnaround


by CVDem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:03:06 PM EST

Obama = Jesse Jackson (none / 0)

It isn't a slur it is a fact.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:06:52 PM EST

Re: Obama = Jesse Jackson (none / 0)

Oh, its a slur.  Bud, sadly, nothing new from your side.


by davey jones on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:09:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama = Jesse Jackson (none / 0)

screw you buddy.  Obama should be happy to be compared to Jesse who I proudly voted for in 1984 and 1988.

So stop insulting Jesse Jackson.  


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:38:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama = Jesse Jackson (none / 0)

"screw you buddy."

Stay classy.


by davey jones on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama = Jesse Jackson (2.00 / 1)

It's neither a slur, nor a fact.  It is however, dumb and unnecessary.


Buddhist Clintonistas for Obama.
by Denny Crane on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

this is true (none / 0)

obama does = jesse. And he made it that way.

His camp played the race card on:

1. fairytale

  1. lbj-MLK
  2. "young and dynamic"
  3. oprah-obama speaking in code in s.c.

The media wants to talk about how the clintons dealt with the race card being played.

But so far the s.c. and florida voters have understood.  

I said from s.c. that it was a good Clinton night, the msm knew it but tried there best to change it over 4 days.

So far, the truth is winning out, but they have  more days to keep trying.


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:14:43 PM EST

Re: this is true (none / 0)

the exit polls showed that 70% plus blamed both sides equally for recent fights..

and another 10 or so blame obama more.  

that is very good for clinton.

and very bad for obama and the media.

being the victim of hose mean and dirty clitons has been his whole campaign strategy for months!.

the guy has no chance, he should just withdraw.


Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!
by Seymour Glass on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:15:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

Exit poll spin..
How bout you explain what percentage of voters cast their ballots before today.
What exit polling did they have for that??

by joachim on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:15:56 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

EXIT POLLING is conducted amongst voters who went to vote TODAY.   The absentee votes were said to be almost exactly the same result as the overall votes coming in today.  

How is it "spin"?  This is data we get from the exit polls.  They are meaningful as to where the demogroups ended up, and there is a very good chance we will see a very similar distribution across the board on Feb. 5.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

what does it matter? (none / 0)

I believe it was a few hundred thousand..... a drop in the bucket.


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:40:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

Early/Absentee Voters (31% of voters):

Clinton: 49%
Obama: 29%
Edwards: 17%

Decided today (10% of voters):

Clinton: 35%
Obama: 27%
Edwards: 31%

Discuss amongst yourselves.


by hwc on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

oops (none / 0)

I was wrong, I heard the numbers wrong on CNN earlier.


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:49:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)


Is there an understanding between Edwards and Obama behind the scenes?

With two person race Obama would be drowned
as it appears the votes he is slicing are from
Clinton's.


by BlueSea on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:17:55 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

 I mean Edwards slicing Clinton's share.


by BlueSea on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:18:46 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

Yes I believe that there is an agreement. But I also think Edwards imagines he can trade delegates for something.


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:42:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

On CNN they broke down the demographics and pointed out that if these demographics hold up Obama will barely win any delegates on super tuesday


by world dictator on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:19:10 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

Actually, they said if the trends hold, Obama will get about a third of a vote on Super Tuesday.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:37:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

err yeah thats what I meant. Thanks. But the point was definetely, this isn't good for Obama.


by world dictator on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:18:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the media is working (none / 0)

to keep Edwards viable.
when he was stopping the "anti hillary" vote from coming together they were setting up his exit:

1. "He needs to win Iowa"

2. "He must win S.C."

But now they realize he's helping Obama so they go along with him in loser mode.

Edwards has no shame, and no job to go home to.

He might pull a Kucininch and pay himself from campaign funds.

But as the 22 states come, he doesn't get enough to tip the balance.  There are too many people voting.


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:20:20 PM EST

Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

Next week Hillary will say, twenty some states have voted and we've won twenty some (minus two).  That message means game over.


by sinclair on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:31:31 PM EST

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

Dream on...

If you really think HRC is going to win 20 states, you are smoking something really good.

But yes, by all means, continue being overconfident and raising expectations -- it will make the CLinton fall so much harder.


by lifelongdem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:39:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

yes I think Obama will get 3 or 4 states.


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:45:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

The poster said "twenty-some states," which would include the four she has under her belt today.  So, if she wins 17 next week, she can say 20-some, no problem.  I think she has an excellent shot to get those 17 states next week.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:24:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

Obama will win more than 2 states. I say 6 or 7.


by lonnette33 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

Jesse Jackson won eleven states in 1988, I believe.


by hwc on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:45:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

Yes, including Michigan.


by souvarine on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:52:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

OK. So what's your guess as to the states Obama will win?


by lonnette33 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:00:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (2.00 / 1)

Hard to say. I understand the DNC is in emergency session tonight debating a motion to bar female candidates from Democratic Party primaries, effective immediately.


by hwc on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:08:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

AWESOME! (2.00 / 1)


Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!
by Seymour Glass on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:21:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (2.00 / 1)

The DNC is also considering a motion to bar all Democratic Party candidates from campaigning between now and November 2008. They are also asking the networks to not televise the Democratic Party convention.


by hwc on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:25:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

ROTFLMAO!   I am going to steal this and send it around, if you don't mind.


by WMCB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:34:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

LOL


by lonnette33 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:55:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not just delegates but states (none / 0)

I don't have a clue, but I would start with the Jackson states: Alabama, DC, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Puerto Rico and Virginia. Western states have changed since 1988, I think Obama has a chance in some of them, and he may do better in caucus states if he has time to organize.

In the end I don't think he can pull it off. He had to win New Hampshire to seriously challenge Clinton, and Florida very likely shows how the remaining big states will go.


by souvarine on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:37:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)


I hope the voters in 22 states shouldnt be considering the Edwards at all( he is not having
any realistic chance. He knows it. Press knows it.)
Like Yellowdem put they dont want to apply the same Kucinich rule to Edwards. He can hog the
limelight in the debate basically to pump up some numbers.
by BlueSea on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:31:45 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

I understand that CNN and the Democratic Party have decided to not invite Hillary Clinton to Thursday's debate. It will be limited to male candidates only, just Obama and Edwards.


by hwc on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:47:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

A couple of other facts:

Hillary got far more votes than McCain

Hillary got nearly one million votes, more than all the votes that Obama got in all the previous primaries put together

Democratic turnout was nearly double this year as in 2004.

Now who is it exactly who is turning out new voters!!!


by markjay on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:49:46 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Polls (none / 0)

"I understand that CNN and the Democratic Party have decided to not invite Hillary Clinton to Thursday's debate. It will be limited to male candidates only, just Obama and Edwards."

Perhaps Hillary should add this to her list of grievances.  I hear there's talk of renaming Festivus in her honor.


by davey jones on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:50:38 PM EST

Out of curiosity, how do you spin... (none / 0)

...Winning over half a million votes in a primary that allegedly doesn't count?

Can you imagine the Floridians turning on the Today Show, Good Morning America, and the Early Show tomorrow morning & hearing Tim Russert and the boys say "Hillary won over half a million votes in a primary that amounted to just a beauty contest."

If I were living in Florida, I'd be pissed hearing that on the news the next morning.


by andrewalker08 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:54:09 PM EST

Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

The Clinton campaign and so many of the supporters here have been so busy saying that SC results didn't mean much because it was a "black primary"

If we were to use the Clinton way of approaching primaries, we would have to therefore discount Florida because it was an "old people's primary" since 40% of the voters were over 60 - hardly indicative of the national electorate.

That, of course, would be ludicrous.

But believing that somehow the Florida results represent what Feb 5th will look like it unfounded in fact or common sense. Florida no more predicts what Connecticut or California or New Jersey or Missouri or etc etc will do than Iowa or NH or Nevada or SC did. Every state has their own political culture -- and Florida is as different as every other state.

Florida is a bizarre occurrence in this year's schedule --  a primary without campaigns or candidates, a national party, a state party and a state legislature that screwed over their own voters. No one knows what the results might have been if they had waited until it was legal to hold a primary under party rules, if there had been active campaigns from all the candidates, if delegates had been at stake.

So sure, congrats to Clinton for winning tonight. But attempting to paint this strange political event as indicative of what will happen in a week is completely foolish.


by lifelongdem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:08:42 PM EST

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

lifelongdem your graciousness drips from every pore. I take you've been taking lessons from Obama in how to respond to opponents in a public setting


by ottovbvs on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:23:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

and ottobvs, your charm and goodwill oozes from you as well, the Clintons must be proud of you


by lifelongdem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:30:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

Well, of course it's a valid point to say that FL has more old people than other states do.

In Florida, 74% of the voters were 45 and up.  In most other states that number has been in the high 60's.  In Iowa the number was 60% and Obama did very well.

But still, you have to figure out what this is worth.  Maybe FL has 10% more old people than other states, and old people vote 2-1 for Clinton.  That's an edge.

Now, compare that to SC where black voters comprised 30-40% more of the electorate than they do in most states, and that's a group that goes 3-1 or even 4-1 for Obama.  That's obviously a far greater edge, and thus more of a distorting effect.

But look, all of this is fair game to talk about.  The $64,000 question is how well Obama will be able to turn out the youth vote in the Super Tuesday states when he only has limited resources to focus on each one.  Ever since Iowa I've wondered how well he'd be able to replicate that GOTV model without having six months to set it up, and I guess we'll see.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

I don't know, I think the big thing to take from this is how much better Obama did among people who decided later than among early voters who cast ballots a month ago.  Because alot has happened in the campaign over the last couple of weeks. And because (other than California) nobody else who votes on Super Tuesday has already voted.


by davey jones on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:32:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (2.00 / 0)

They haven't already voted, but there's a ton of people who have already made up their mind.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

Actually, in SC the AA vote is about 32% of the population, but is more than half (53% I think?) of the Democratic party.  Remember, we are not talking general election here.


by WMCB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:37:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

That's what I'm talking about.  It was 55% this year, but 15-25% is standard in most other states.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:41:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

I'm just pointing out that every state is different

Clinton won 29% of the white vote in Iowa, 39% in NH, 36% in SC, and 53% in Florida -- how on earth can anyone decide what those numbers mean for 22 very different states on Feb 5th?  Every state has different political cultures -- applying results from one unrepresentative state to another one that may or may not resemble it in dozens of demographic, historical, cultural or political ways is silly.

But I'm fine if the Clinton folks on line somehow want to believe that this means she's going to get 53% of the white vote in California or Massachusetts or Minnesota or wherever. They can think that, but we all know it just ain't going to happen.


by lifelongdem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:38:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

I think it's pretty rock-solid that Obama is going to get a huge percentage of the black vote and Clinton is going to get most of the older voters.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:42:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

no disagreement there -- but I think there are a ton of votes still up for grabs --

Will whites under 60 vote like they did in Iowa or like they did in Florida?  Or something else entirely?

Can Obama cut into the Clinton margin among Latinos? (according to the Florida exit polls, he improved slightly from the Nevada numbers - but certainly not as much as he wants to in upcoming states)

Where will Edwards show strength, and how will those votes impact the other two?

Where are the campaigns already well organized in the Feb 5th states, and how will they deploy their resources between now and then?

--

I simply don't buy the argument that Jerome and others make that you simply apply the demographic/ candidate grid from Florida and it will tell us what is going to happen next week.


by lifelongdem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:54:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Applying Clinton SC spin to FL (none / 0)

Clinton won the youth vote in FL.


by WMCB on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:39:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Poll Demographic Info (none / 0)

Extend those out over all 20 primary states next Tuesday, and you'll pretty much have the outcome. It seems pretty set it stone at this point in time.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:30:21 PM EST

Re: Florida Exit Poll Demographic Info (none / 0)

If you really believe that those demographic groups will behave identically in those states as they did in Florida. I think that is a gross simplification that won't be borne out in 22 extremely diverse states. The latest Survey USA and Field polls show Obama and Clinton in a dead heat among white voters in California... whatever the value of those particular polls, it certainly shows that there is a chance that the demographic/voter preference of states that have voted so far may be different from those that will vote.

I don't think the outcome is set in stone at all. The situation is extremely fluid.


by lifelongdem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Poll Demographic Info (none / 0)

Jerome:

I think that Obama will do better than 22% of the white vote in the west, midwest, and northeast.


by hwc on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:45:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Exit Poll Demographic Info (none / 0)

On the other hand, the Kennedy endorsement is going to kill the Obama "Democrat for a Day" appeal to the Republican and Republican/Independent crossover voters that powered him in NH, SC, and rural Nevada.

To the average center or right of center voter (outside the Beltway echo chamber), Ted Kennedy is viewed with total and complete ridicule.


by hwc on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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